Not all polling averages are created equal. The website’s polling averages show Biden with a lead of 7.2 percent nationally as of Election Day. Polls. We will be having an even bigger victory than that of 2016. ET, November 3, 2020. Trafalgar’s last surveys leading up to this week’s election suggested Trump is leading Biden by 5 percent of the vote in both Ohio and Georgia, provoking polling analysts on Tuesday to extend their criticism of Trafalgar to RealClearPolitics. “The Real Polls are starting to look GREAT! NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll released on October 10: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points in a one-on-one contest and 11 points  in a four way race, 3. The final polling averages showed Hillary Clinton winning the three crucial swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016. Monmouth University Poll released on October 17: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points, 5. As of the 25th, they had Biden with a lead of 6.6%. USA Today/Suffolk University Poll released on October 27: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by ten points in a one-on-one race and by nine points in a four way race. 47.6. Shipment of Coronavirus Vaccine, JUST IN: Trump Posts Call for Bill Barr to Be Fired TODAY if He Knew About Hunter Biden Tax Investigation in April, WATCH: SNL’s Weekend Update Goes Off The Rails As Kate McKinnon Cracks Up While Trying to Give Colin Jost the Vaccine, GOP Rep. 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Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. Biden +4 in NC for the new poll. RCP National Average (2020 vs. 2016) | Top Battlegrounds (20 ' 20 vs. 20 ' 16) | Favorability Ratings (20 ' 20 vs. 20 ' 16)RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes | Latest Polls TL;DR: RCP only averages polls over the last two weeks. ABC Poll released on October 23: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points, 6. Polls. RCP Poll Average. Notably, Trafalgar Group, which Tom Bevan, co-founder and president of RCP, has referred to as “one of the most accurate polling operations in America,” has recently had Trump and Biden statistically tied in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania: Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #MIpoll conducted Oct 11-14 still shows a thin Trump lead: 46.5% @realDonaldTrump,45.9% @JoeBiden,2.5% @Jorgensen4POTUS,2.2% all others,2.2% Und. In reality, Trump won Michigan in by .3 percent, Pennsylvania by .7 percent, and Wisconsin by .7 percent. Biden’s lead took the biggest hit in Iowa, where he was leading the RealClearPolitics average by 1.2 percent as recently as October 30, after polls from Emerson, Quinnipiac and Emerson Advantage suggested Trump held the edge. Without getting conspiratorial, the RCP poll numbers from which the final RCP average (Clinton +2.9%) is derived give rise to two observations: First, two distinctly separate sets of polls … — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 8, 2020. Writing on Twitter, The New York Times’ Nate Cohn suggested the RealClearPolitics averages shouldn’t be treated as credible — even if they turn out to be correct. “Trump may win in the end, but that won’t vindicate RCP,” Cohn wrote. As Breitbart News recently reported, over a dozen polls in October 2016 also showed Clinton with a sizeable lead over Trump nationally. PRRI/Brookings Poll released on October 19: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 15 points, 2. See Report: https://t.co/dcPtMMUSpx pic.twitter.com/l1whvPtn1f, — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 16, 2020, Trump is edging closer in Wisconsin, our brand new RP/Trafalgar poll shows. WATCH: Trucks Depart Pfizer Facility With First U.S. We will be having an even bigger victory than that of 2016. He was bullish on Romney in 2012, even going as far as saying the polls were weighted incorrectly (I believed that too then) and he was wrong. The Radical Left Anarchists, Agitators, Looters, and just plain Lunatics, will not be happy, but they will behave!” Trump said in September: The Real Polls are starting to look GREAT! Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. AP Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points, 4. Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. A Des Moines Register poll conducted between October 26-29 was the most favorable to Trump, suggesting he led Biden 48-41 percent. And as newer polls come out this week and the older ones fall off the overall average will tighten as well. Here is a table of key states from 2016 comparing the final RCP polling averages to the final election results. Fivethirtyeight weights polls based on past performance and methodology. Here’s how wrong the Real Clear Politics average of polls and the polling ‘gospel’ at Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight were about the president’s polling numbers: “A really rough night for polls and a disastrous night for certain pollsters such as Quinnipiac who showed Biden doing so much better,” statistician Josh Jordan tweeted. Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll released on October 6: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by ten points, 10. Several showed the former secretary of state holding a double-digit lead: 1. Polls. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. Trump has publicly questioned the accuracy of recent polls repeatedly on social media. President Donald Trump overcame Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s polling lead in four states during the last five days leading up to the 2020 election, according to averages maintained by RealClearPolitics. Biden enjoyed his greatest lead in the state at the end of July, when RealClearPolitics’ average showed him holding support from 50 percent of the state’s voters to 45.3 percent for Trump. The race is tightening, says 2016's most accurate pollster. Final 2016 RCP Average: Trump +0.2, Results: Trump +1.2 (Trump +1.0 Ahead of Polls) Final 2016 RCP Average: Trump +0.2, Results: Trump +1.2 (Trump +1.0 Ahead of Polls) Polling Data Polls. Polls. I will be shocked if Biden wins. NC RCP Average Biden +1.2 Now NC is added to the states with increased RCP average for … State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. RCP calculates its average by looking back at the previous two weeks of qualifying polls, and producing a raw, unweighted average. Saint Leo University Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points. Similarly, in the same time span, only three polls in RCP’s average have shown Trump leading in Wisconsin, and only one has had him leading in Pennsylvania, with two others reporting ties. SurveyUSA/Boston Globe Poll released on October 14:  Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by ten points, 11. The Radical Left Anarchists, Agitators, Looters, and just plain Lunatics, will not be happy, but they will behave! These averages were posted as of 5:00 a.m. Bloomberg Poll released on October 19: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points, 13. CNBC Poll released on October 27: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points. CBS Poll released on October 17: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nine points, 12. This has advantages and disadvantages. Wisconsin: Biden +6.3. 45.6. Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; Election 2020. Now let's take the differential in the 2016 RCP average for each state and add the difference to the current RCP state averages for this election. Since the beginning of the year, only three surveys included in RCP’s average have shown Trump leading in Michigan. Polls. Gotta disagree with Newt on this. He also enjoys a narrow polling lead in key swing states, including .09 percent in Arizona and Florida and 1.2 percent in Pennsylvania. 8. @trafalgar_group @RobertCahaly, Full report here: https://t.co/Hd8SYFk1Az pic.twitter.com/PkphRgipjQ, — RestorationPAC (@restorationpac) October 15, 2020, Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #PApoll conducted Oct 10-12 shows Biden leading with:47.4% @JoeBiden,45.1% @realDonaldTrump,3.1% @Jorgensen4POTUS,2.6% all others,1.6% Und. Iowa: Trump vs. Biden. Pennsyvlania: Biden +5.6. Recent polling by Trafalgar Group factored heavily into RealClearPolitics’ calculation for Georgia and Ohio. According to, I guess the guy who owns RCP, stated on foxnews tonight that the polls are tightening, especially the state polls. Or to keep it anonymous, click here. It was also one of the only polling firms to correctly predict Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. The Georgia-based polling firm weights its surveys for “social desirability bias,” taking into account the idea that some Trump voters are afraid to be honest with pollsters. Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. Polls. President Trump Job Approval Politico/Morning Consult Approve 43, Disapprove 55 Disapprove +12 President Trump Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 43, … Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. And they also include polls from over two weeks ago, but their weighting depends on the quality and quantity of recent polling. President Donald Trump overcame Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's lead in RealClearPolitics polling averages in four states in the final 48 hours leading up to the 2020 election. Fivethirtyeight uses fancy math to make their best guess based on available polling. By contrast, Joe Biden has NEVER trailed Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls. Polls. Real Clear Politics Average of the polls: Trump/Clinton2016 vs. Trump/Biden2020 In the Real Clear Politics Average of the Polls, Clinton trailed Trump at two different points, May 22, 2016 to May 25, 2016 by 0.2%, and July 29, 2016 to July 30, 2016 by 1.2%. 9. A snapshot of Saturday’s morning’s RealClearPolitics (RCP) average in each state is as follows: Michigan: Biden +7.2. “If Trump wins the polls were really, really wrong. A snapshot of Saturday’s morning’s RealClearPolitics (RCP) average in each state is as follows: Since the beginning of the year, only three surveys included in RCP’s average have shown Trump leading in Michigan. RCP, from what I understand, pretty much takes a straight average over several days. But you don’t get that impression from RCP, since they’re not fairly reflecting the polls.”. [email protected]. Please let us know if you're having issues with commenting. I’ll certainly be nothing but honest about that fact. Have a tip we should know? See Report: https://t.co/eLE6hjCZhO pic.twitter.com/Qwcd4z4Yk9, — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 13, 2020, 2020 ElectionPoliticsDonald TrumpHillary ClintonMichiganPennsylvaniaWisconsin. The website’s polling averages now suggest Trump leads in Iowa by 2 percent of the vote; Georgia (1 percent); North Carolina (0.2 percent); and Ohio (1.4 percent). RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Michigan Presidential Polls 2020 vs. 2016. The Democratic nominee’s lead in North Carolina — the most competitive state on the list — took a hit as a result of an InsiderAdvantage poll, conducted between October 26-November 1, that showed Trump leading 48-44 percent. Trump’s suspicion prompts a look at the 2016 polls, which famously had Trump losing the key swing states. RCP Poll Average. Atlantic/PRRI Poll released on October 9: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points, 7. Email us. That methodology has included asking respondents who they believed their neighbors planned to vote for, as well as differences in how Trafalgar judges who is most likely to vote. As of this writing, the RCP average has Biden up 7.7 points over Trump, more than half a point greater than yesterday’s update, while the FiveThirtyEight average … Trump (R) +2.0. Final RCP Polling Averages Had Hillary Clinton Winning MI, WI, and PA - The Polls are Fake just like much of the reported news. Have a tip or story idea? New NC poll was released today, taken after the debate. Iowa: Trump vs. Biden. The final polling averages showed Hillary Clinton winning the three crucial swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 — a fact critics of current polling point to as the presidential race enters its final stretch. RCP Poll Average. Polls are tightening as Election Day rapidly approaches, but few polls show President Trump enjoying a lead in the key Rust Belt states he carried in 2016. Latest Polls; RCP National Average; Top Battlegrounds Average; Trump Job Approval; Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. I won it all against Crooked Hillary! Biden previously led polling in all four states, but saw his advantage dwindle in recent days. Originally Posted by Smash255 RCP National average currently stands at Biden +6.7 Five Thirty Eight Polling Aggregate Biden +7.2 Five Thirty Eight RCP National Average: Trump vs. Biden - Elections - Page 37 - City-Data Forum Year, only three surveys included in RCP ’ s suspicion prompts a look at the 2016 polls, Wisconsin. Depends on the quality and quantity of recent polls repeatedly on social media about. Trafalgar Group factored heavily into RealClearPolitics ’  calculation for Georgia and Ohio to,! Previously led polling in all four states, including.09 percent in Pennsylvania website ’ s polling averages show with. 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