McLeay, Michael and Tenreyro, Silvana (2020) Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips curve. 235–248. Information about this author at RePEc . Using a variety of empirical methods, the researchers find little evidence against the irrelevance hypothesis, with their estimates suggesting that the responses of output, inflation and the long-term interest rate were hardly affected by the binding ZLB constraint, possibly as a result of the adoption and fine-tuning of unconventional monetary policies. The extent to which individual responses to household surveys are protected from discovery by outside parties depends... © 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research. This targeting rule will impart a negative correlation between inflation and the output gap, blurring the identification of the (positively sloped) Phillips curve. Publisher: University of Chicago Press Journals Release date: 2020-05-22. Bai, Hsieh, and Song argue that China's extraordinary economic growth comes from these special deals. All Rights Reserved. M McLeay, A Radia, R Thomas. June 2017: … Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University, Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER, Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong Download Slides Download Paper. 758: 2002: Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased them by more. Chapter in NBER book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34 (2020), Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A. Parker, editors (p. 199 - 255) Conference held April 11-12, 2019 Published in March 2020 by University of Chicago Press Sbordone, A. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34 (1). Older Notes and Working Papers. Centre For Macroeconomics, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK. Comment on ‘Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve,’ by Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, 34, pp. Chinese local governments wield their enormous political power and administrative capacity to provide "special deals" for favored private firms. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 34 (1), 199-255, 2020. ISSN 0889-3365 Sterk, Vincent and Tenreyro, Silvana (2018) The transmission of monetary policy through redistributions and durable purchases. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve. NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Powell, J. H. (2019): “Challenges for Monetary Policy”, Speech delivered at the "Challenges for Monetary Policy" symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. 199 - 255. Explaining the Rising Concentration of U.S. Industries: Superstars, Intangibles, Globalization or Market Power? In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25820, which may be a more recent version. M Koren, S Tenreyro. After documenting these changes, Borella, De Nardi, and Yang use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. loading... Silvana Tenreyro ... with Michael McLeay in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A. Parker, editors: May 2019: Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve with Michael McLeay: w25892: August 2017: Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies with … Search for more articles by this author Abstract; Full Text; PDF; Supplemental Material; Add to favorites; Download Citations; Track Citations; Permissions; Reprints; Share on. Since the late 1990's, U.S. industries have become more concentrated and more profitable, while non residential business investment has been weak relative to fundamentals. "Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies," Journal of International Economics , . 34300 Points . The interpretation of these trends is controversial. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, 34 (1). HOME PAGE. National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual The thirty-fourth volume of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features theoretical and empirical studies of issues in contemporary macroeconomics and a keynote address by James Stock, a member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2014. Revista de Economía Institucional 17 (33), 333-353, 2015. … D Aikman, AG Haldane, M Hinterschweiger, S Kapadia. 708: 2011: Volatility and development. McLeay, Michael and Tenreyro, Silvana (2018) Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips Curve. Michael McLeay Bank of England Threadneedle Street, London EC2R 8AH. April 11-12, 2019 Share. … All Rights Reserved. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 25892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. References listed on IDEAS. manufacturing output growth slowed sharply and PPP-weighted world growth is set to fall from from 3½% in 2018 to 2¾% in 2019. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, pages 199-255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2018. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports, video lectures, and interviews. They show why this result need not imply that the Phillips curve does not hold -- on the contrary, their conceptual framework is built under the assumption that the Phillips curve always holds. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. " London, WC2A 3PH. Their empirical work shows that high-quality goods are more intensive in skilled labor than low-quality goods and that household spending on high-quality goods rises with income. You may be able to download this chapter for free via the Document Object Identifier. “Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve,” with M. McLeay (2020). Specifically, in our paper the Philli… 34th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 2019 More from NBER In addition to working papers , the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter , the NBER Digest , the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability , and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports , video lectures , and interviews . 61: 2020: El dinero en la economía moderna: una introducción. 34. 02079556018; E-mail: Main Academic Positions Professor, London School of Economics 2012- Associate Professor (Reader), London School of Economics 2008-2012 Assistant Professor (Lecturer), … ISSN 0889-3365 Monograph. The reason is simple: if monetary policy is set with the goal of minimizing welfare losses (measured as the sum of deviations of inflation from its target and output from its potential), subject to a Phillips curve, a central bank will seek to increase inflation when output is below potential. In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25892, which may be a more recent version. The thirty-fourth volume of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features theoretical and empirical studies of issues in contemporary macroeconomics and a keynote address by James Stock, a member of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to … Philippon and Gutiérrez develop a simple model to differentiate four prominent explanations: decreasing domestic competition (DDC), increases in the efficient scale of operation (EFS), the rise of intangible assets (INTAN), and globalization (GLOBAL). From 1960 to 1983, the standard deviation of annual growth rates in real GDP in the United States was 2.7%. The extent to which individual responses to household surveys are protected from discovery by outside parties depends... © 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER Working Papers and Publications. Silvana Tenreyro Curriculum Vitae, September 2018 Address: London School of Economics, Department of Economics, 32 Lincoln’s Inn Fields 2.19. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34 (1). NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25839, which may be a more recent version. 33nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 32nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 31st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, The 2020 Martin Feldstein Lecture: Journey Across a Century of Women, Summer Institute 2020 Methods Lectures: Differential Privacy for Economists, The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, Conference on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, Improving Health Outcomes for an Aging Population, Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems, Retirement and Disability Research Center, The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health, Training Program in Aging and Health Economics, Transportation Economics in the 21st Century, Comment on "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve". 34th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 2019. 33rd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 32nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 31st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics. Competition between local governments limits the predatory effects of special deals. On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint, The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of Non-College Educated Americans Born in the 1960s, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, University of California, San Diego and NBER, The 2020 Martin Feldstein Lecture: Journey Across a Century of Women, Summer Institute 2020 Methods Lectures: Differential Privacy for Economists, The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, Conference on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, Improving Health Outcomes for an Aging Population, Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems, Retirement and Disability Research Center, The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health, Training Program in Aging and Health Economics, Transportation Economics in the 21st Century, From Good to Bad Concentration? 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